Solar activity, geomagnetic conditions, and operational impact assessment
Kp Index
1.7
low stormRisk Score
22
/100 analytical
Solar Flares (7d)
2
M-class detected
Geomagnetic Storm
None
Ionospheric disturbances can degrade GPS accuracy by 2–10m at high Kp. HF radio blackouts possible during X-flares.
Elevated atmospheric heating expands thermosphere, increasing drag on LEO satellites. Orbit decay accelerated at Kp ≥ 5.
HF radio blackouts affect transpolar flight communications. Airlines may reroute away from polar tracks during major events.
Geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) can stress high-voltage transformers. G4–G5 storms historically caused grid failures.
Current radiation storm level: S1 - Minor. Solar energetic particles impact spacecraft electronics and crewed missions.
Moderate M-class flare with limited radio blackout potential.
Minor C-class event, no significant impacts expected.
Coronal Mass Ejections
2026-08-03 03:38 UTC
CME observed best to the E in STEREO A COR2. Also observed faintly to the W in SOHO LASCO C2 until a downlink gap begins at 2026-08-03T05:00Z, and faintly to the W in GOES CCOR-1. The source may be gradual field line brightening/opening from AR 14501 (S07W43) lasting from approximately 2026-08-03T00:00Z to 2026-08-03T04:00Z in SDO AIA 193/211. The CME is likely deflected northeastward with proximity to the large southern polar coronal hole seen facing STEREO A EUVI.
2026-08-03 08:38 UTC
CME observed to the NE in only STEREO A COR2, likely obscured by the pylon in GOES CCOR-1. The CME is unavailable in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 real-time due to a downlink gap. The likely source is AR 14498, observed in SDO AIA 304 first as a filament liftoff with surface brightening starting around 2026-08-03T07:10Z, followed by a wider swath of faint dimming and brightening starting around 2026-08-03T08:16Z in SDO AIA 171/193, all centered ~N22W12.
2026-08-03 12:23 UTC
CME observed to the SE in STEREO A COR2 and GOES CCOR-1. The source is a filament eruption on the south central disk centered around S35W05. The filament in SDO AIA 304 begins to lift as early as approximately 2026-08-03T03:00Z, with most of the eruption seen from 2026-08-03T07:00Z to 2026-08-03T12:00Z, with brightening on-disk. This CME is also observed in SDO AIA 193 as a wide swath of dimming starting at approximately 2026-08-03T10:00Z which migrates southeastward for several hours and covers a large area of the south-central disk. The filament eruption, field line movement, dimming, and brightening are also seen in STEREO A EUVI 195 and 304 at 2026-08-03T07:55Z and 2026-08-03T08:15Z respectively.
2026-08-04 10:09 UTC
CME visible to the NE in STEREO A COR2 imagery. Not clearly visible in GOES CCOR-1 imagery. There is a data gap in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 imagery in real-time. The source may be a far-sided filament eruption beyond the NE limb as best seen in GOES SUVI 284/304 imagery at 2026-08-04T06:29Z.
2026-08-04 11:23 UTC
CME first seen to the SE in STEREO A COR2. The CME is also seen in GOES CCOR-1 starting around 2026-08-04T14:00Z. The potential source is not clear, but may be a faint region of dimming seen in the SE of SDO AIA 193 imagery, centered around S40E30, between 2026-08-04T06:00Z-09:00Z. Moving/opening field lines are also visible off the NE limb in SDO AIA 171 in ISWA, GOES SUVI 284, and STEREO A EUV 195 imagery.
No active geomagnetic storm detected.
NOAA Alert Levels